After first decline in years, SF home prices hit all-time high in April 2016

Last week we drilled down into the recent decline in SF home prices. Instead of a market downturn, we found that the decline was isolated to homes and especially condos sold above $3M. Below $3M, prices continued to increase and competition was fierce.

April 2016 - Back to normal/crazy

At the time of publication, there were 394 single-family homes and condos reported sold to the San Francisco MLS in April 2016. Their combined median sales price was $1,285,000, which is a new all-time high. This was 23% higher than the previous month and 6% higher than April 2015. Sales volume remains low: 394 sold vs 492 in the same period last year, a 23% YOY decline. The previous high of $1.26M was in May 2015.

Beyond the median, different markets at each price point
  • Single-family homes (60% of total sales) are selling way above asking at all price points.
  • Home and condos below $1M (30% of total sales) are increasing in price/sqft. Above $1M, home values are declining on a price/sqft basis.
  • Luxury condo market is weakest with condos over $3M (2% of total sales) going for 2.7% below their asking price on average. There's very low volume in that range: only 8 condos for over $3M in April.

Interesting times! We'll continue to closely monitor the SF markets for any signs of change.

Data sources: San Francisco MLS (dataset available by request). Median home prices prior to April 2016 via Paragon RE. Thanks to Patrick Carlisle from Paragon for confirming these findings.